The probabilities are two out of three, in fact.
To calculate these odds, I focused on the stock market’s inflation-adjusted total return since 1871, courtesy of data compiled by Yale University’s Robert Shiller. On average across all 12-month periods over the last 150+ years, the market rose 69.2% of the time—very close to two out of three. That’s the baseline.
What this means: The odds the market will rise over the next 12 months are no different just because the market today has declined over the last year. While there is nothing set in stone about two-out-of-three odds in particular, these roughly are the odds the U.S. equity market has set over more than a century. We should not expect these odds to change significantly from year to year. And that’s exactly what I found.
MW doesnt allow access to your watchlist if u upvote a conservative comment in their conversation section of articles. It happens like clockwork
69%? Niceeeee 😎