The longer the stock market churns in place, the more time investors have had to cogitate over the causes of what could just be a standard and needed late-summer shakeout to reset stretched investor expectations, positioning and valuation.
The Fed-funds futures market looking beyond a few months is something like the preseason college-football rankings: All we have available to work with before the season starts, but interesting mostly for how exactly they'll be proven wrong. And note that just a few months ago, cuts were priced for the latter part of this year, and the market unwinding that assumption did not kneecap equities.