Billionaire investor Howard Marks said a “sea change” that has brought a four-decade fall in interest rates to a halt warrants a big-time shift in investor portfolios into credit instruments.
Marks has argued that the tailwind provided by falling interest rates is hard to overstate. He contends such easy money was responsible for a significant chunk of all the money investors made over the last four decades. Marks noted that the S&P 500 SPX has returned just over 10% a year for almost a century, “and everyone’s very happy .”
Marks emphasized that he wasn’t saying interest rates would go back to their highs from the early 1980s and that he had no reason to believe that a recession most people see ahead will be severe or long lasting. And while stock-market valuations are high, “but not terribly so,” he doesn’t think a stock-market collapse can reasonably be predicted.
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