The U.S. stock market’s rally is most likely a counter-trend advance within a longer-term downtrend. That’s the conclusion I reached after analyzing how quickly many on Wall Street have turned bullish in recent days. The hallmark of a more sustainable advance is one that initially is met with widespread skepticism, but that hasn’t been the case now.
In fact, the average market timer has turned far more bullish than this two-decade analysis would lead us to expect. Consider first the average exposure level of stock market timers who focus on the broad stock market. A similar story is told by the other equity sentiment index that my firm constructs, which focuses on equity exposure levels among Nasdaq-focused stock market timers in particular.
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