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Citigroup stock market sentiment model reaches euphoria levels, which typically foretells a decline

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The gauge suggests equities could decline about 9% over the next 12 months, measured over a median basis.

Investor optimism has gotten out of hand, according to Citigroup. In fact, a stock market sentiment model from the firm called the Levkovich Index has now reached euphoria levels, which typically heralds a fall in equities, the firm's U.S. equity strategist Scott Chronert wrote in a Thursday note. The Levkovich Index, named after the bank's late U.S.

The Federal Reserve turing more hawkish than investors currently anticipate, for example, could prove an impetus for a decline. "The consensus is for three rate cuts this year," Chronert said. "But if you do go down a path where you get a fewer number of Fed rate cuts, or even a lack of a pivot, I'd say that probably brings our euphoric concern back into play." .

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