Walgreens and CVS stocks look like tempting values, but investors may be swallowing a bitter pill

They trade at very low valuations to earnings estimates. That could mean it’s time for bargain hunters to load up. Still, this is a troubled corner in a health-care industry going through a significant transformation.

The forward P/E ratio for Walgreens has fallen to 8.9 from 10.3 a year ago, while the P/E for CVS has narrowed to 7.8 from 9.9. The lower valuation for CVS helps explain why 20 of 26 analysts polled by FactSet rate the stock a buy or equivalent, while only six of 26 rate Walgreens a buy.

A contrarian opinion While most sell-side analysts prefer CVS over Walgreens, Wells Fargo senior analyst Peter Costa rates Walgreens “outperform,” with a $75 price target, implying 39% upside over the next 12 months from the stock’s closing price of $54.15 on April 4. When discussing the two drug retailers in a phone interview on April 3, he said: “These are clearly deep value stocks at this point.

Jonas said that although the distribution partnerships had been “bad for everyone,” things might get better for Walgreens and CVS: “Now the prices have stabilized at the lower level ... it should be less of a challenge going forward.” On a more positive note, Kirby said that for many years, Walgreens was able to offset the price declines by increasing volume. “Walgreens still has 20% of [U.S.] prescriptions. They are an efficient player, with more throughput per pharmacist,” he said. He is impressed enough with Walgreens’ efficiency to continue holding the shares, while he doesn’t hold CVS.

“PillPack does a good job combining your prescriptions together and shipping all your medicine to you at once. CVS has started to copy it. I am not sure if Walgreens has, but I would bet on Amazon being faster and easier in general,” Jonas said. Amazon’s talent for online user interfaces and efficient delivery could also lead to further difficulties for the brick-and-mortar drug retailers if and when the company makes a major push to expand the service.

When considering further declines for shares of Walgreens and CVS, he said “there is a price where they become compelling” as cash-flow plays, but “that doesn’t say anything good about them from a business perspective.”Hare of Huntington Private Bank was similarly grim when discussing the two companies’ prospects. “To us, valuation alone is not a reason to get in,” he said.

But Walgreens is included in the S&P 500 Dividend Aristocrats Index SPDAUDP, +0.05% as one of 57 companies in the benchmark index that have increased regular dividends on common shares for at least 25 consecutive years. CVS stopped increasing its payout when it announced the Aetna deal last year. Last June, Walgreens raised its dividend by 10%.

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