India’s exit poll industry faces biggest credibility test after record election

BENGALURU – As the last phase of the marathon Indian election concludes on June 1, think-tanks and polling agencies are preparing to release a flurry of exit poll results to try to project the winner and the extent of the victory.

Indians have been voting in national parliamentary elections in a seven-phase election for 543 constituencies since April 19. Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s Bharatiya Janata Party is seeking a third term in the Lok Sabha, or lower house of the parliament.pollsters now face the challenge of assessing what low voter turnout, heatwave conditions, and the growing frequency of religiously laced comments from the prime minister mean for election results.

Predicting election outcomes in a chaotic, diverse and unpredictable country like India is risky business. So exit polls do get it wrong. “India is very complex – each state is like a country. All factors that influence voting change by region, caste, gender, age, phase of election, promises made by candidates, local history, and now more than ever, what people see on social media,” said Mr VK Bajaj, co-founder of Today’s Chanakya, a Delhi-based polling agency.

“Statistically, exit polling only allows you to project the share of votes each party will get, along with some detail about how people across demographics vote on certain issues. Predicting seats is a mathematical extrapolation that is not the purpose of exit polls,” added Mr Deshmukh.India poll body comes under criticism for not taking action against divisive claims by BJP

While Today’s Chanakya does not publicly share its sample size or methodology, Mr Bajaj explained its approach as interviewing the right voters, “by creating a sample, even if small, that is truly representative of caste equations, rural and urban balance, gender, age range and some regional parameters”.

“We ask voters wholesome questions about social indicators, visibility of legislators, government schemes, and then ask who they voted for,” said Mr Pradeep Gupta, managing director of My Axis India, which is also commissioned by political parties, including the BJP.

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