In a note to clients Tuesday, UBS analysts highlighted the potential for a significant rotation trade that could propel theto 6500. They state that this shift from cash and bonds into stocks hinges on maintaining an ideal macroeconomic environment.surged by 7.6% after a modest 0.9% rise in 1H24. Regional banks and non-profitable tech stocks also saw significant gains.
They state that recent data has been encouraging, with inflation below expectations and disinflation trends continuing due to declining shelter inflation. However, UBS warns that investors might be overly optimistic about the extent of Fed rate cuts. The market currently prices in 65bps of cuts this year, including a likely September cut, and over 100bps in 2025. UBS says this is aggressive if growth remains around 2% and inflation above 2%. They emphasize that only an ideal macro environment can sustain the rotation trade.
Despite the market rotation, UBS maintains its core investment strategy: positioning for lower rates, focusing on quality growth stocks, and leveraging AI opportunities. They project a year-end S&P 500 target of 5900, with a bull case of 6500, driven by"immaculate disinflationary growth" and sustained high productivity growth, particularly from AI advancements.
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