FILE - Lexia Smith stocks product while working in The Cottage Farm Stand & Baking Co. vendor booth set up at the Owensboro Regional Farmers' Market in Owensboro, Ky., on Aug. 31, 2024. /The Messenger-Inquirer via AP, File)WASHINGTON — Hiring by America’s employers picked up a bit in August from July’s sluggish pace, and the unemployment rate dipped for the first time since March in a sign that the job market may be cooling but remains sturdy.
With inflation falling steadily back to the Federal Reserve’s 2% target, the Fed is preparing to cut its key interest rate from a 23-year high. Friday’s mixed report on the job market raises the question of how large a cut the Fed will announce after it meets Sept. 17-18. The central bank could reduce its benchmark rate by a typical quarter-point or by a larger-than-usual half-point. Wall Street traders now foresee a roughly 50-50 likelihood of either scenario, according to futures prices.
In a major speech last month, Chair Jerome Powell suggested that the Fed’s policymakers have all but tamed inflation through high interest rates and don’t want to see the job market weaken further. The central bank is trying to achieve a “soft landing,” in which it succeeds in driving inflation down from a 9.1% peak in 2022 to its target level without causing a recession.
“There’s a whole world waiting to see what happens with our election,” she said. “We have this great waiting game. No one wants to make big moves yet.”“The bottom isn’t falling out, and we’re not seeing a rocket ship,” she said. “It’s stability.” The Fed’s Beige Book, a collection of anecdotes from the 12 regional Fed banks, reported that many employers appeared to have become pickier about whom they hired in July and August. And a survey by the Conference Board in August found that the proportion of Americans who think jobs are hard to find has been rising, a trend that has often correlated with a higher unemployment rate.
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