The reunion of BP and Transocean is sending a signal to the oil market

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Tight market for oil rigs might restrain supply even if producers pull back from projects

There is a feeling of déjà vu about BP’s big new oil project. Not just because the company is returning to the Gulf of Mexico, 15 years after the Deepwater Horizon accident killed 11 people, spilled 5mn barrels of oil and cost the company more than $60bn. It is also because it is drilling its new Kaskida field, where oil sits about six miles below the surface of the sea at an incredibly high pressure, with the same company that owned Deepwater Horizon: Transocean.

Contractors quickly learnt how vicious the cycle can be; plenty of oil companies simply walked away from their contracts. How much oil the world would need in the future was increasingly unclear as oil companies diverted some spending to low-carbon projects and the Covid-19 pandemic hit demand and introduced the idea that gas-guzzling commuters might prefer to work from home. Transocean put the Deepwater Atlas deal on ice for years, only taking delivery in 2022.

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