tool showed the market was pricing in a mere 5% chance of a 50-basis-point rate cut, while the plurality of traders saw a 25-bp cut. This means that if Emanuel's forecast comes true, it would catch the market off-guard based on current expectations.
"As we suggested on 3/31 when we originally made the exceptionally non-consensus forecast that the Fed will cut rates twice in 2019, neither the level of the equity market nor the strength of the economy will necessarily dissuade the Fed from cutting," Emanuel said.
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