CHAPEL HILL, N.C. — Think back 10 years ago, in December 2009: How many of us were forecasting that the subsequent decade would be one of the best in U.S. history for the stock market?
In fact, however, the stock market SPX, +0.01% in December 2009 was about to embark on an exceptional decade: Its inflation-adjusted total return since then has been over 11% annualized, versus an average of 6.8% since 1871 . Consider: In December 2009, the trailing 10-year real total-return of the S&P 500 was minus 3.2% — 10 percentage points below the long-term annual average. From the perspective of regression to the mean, it therefore shouldn’t have been a big surprise that the subsequent decade would be such a good one for equities.
Are there any alternatives that look any better? The answer is implicit in the accompanying chart, which shows the historical returns of various asset classes, over both the last decade and over the 80+ years prior to the last decade. A final word about bonds. Regression to the mean provides less of a guide to their performance over the coming decade, since their returns are largely a function of their starting yield. This was certainly the case with both intermediate- and long-term Treasuries TMUBMUSD10Y, -3.53% over the last decade, as their total returns are within shouting distance of what they were yielding in December 2009.
There is going to be a recession. Using up the ammo to prevent it is ridiculous because its inevitable. Now when the recession happens, even more nontraditional methods will be used and at some point you will severely damage the dollar. That will cause incredible pain for people.
Forever Bull is the new normal
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