El-Erian: US stock market could end up dropping 20%-30% when the bottom is finally reached

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'This is going to be treacherous for a while. I would advise most retail investors to stay on the sidelines, not panic. There will be opportunities but they're not now,' the chief economic advisor at Allianz said.

than regular economic crises. Economic sudden stops are hard to restart," he said at the time and reiterated Monday.

"It's going to be messy because we've basically lost all our anchors," El-Erian said. "We lost the economic anchor with the coronavirus. We've lost the policy anchor with people losing confidence in the Fed's ability to turn things around. And over the weekend, we lost a market anchor with OPEC" failing to get a production-cut deal.'s Feb. 12 record, he added. The Dow, as of Friday's close, was 12.5% off those all-time highs.

Put that together with what looks like a possible 5% drop at Monday's open, and the Dow could be entering the leading edge of El-Erian's prediction. In measuring the magnitude of the declines, a market correction is defined by a drop of at least 10% from recent 52-week highs. A bear market happens when declines reach at latest 20% from recent 52-week highs.

 

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El Erian is bearish. You know the bottom is in now

It’s next to impossible to correctly call a bottom. I feel all it will take is some positive news about containment/cure and markets will rebound quickly. Very curious to hear 1st & 2nd qtr earnings this year. DCA is the way to go imo. 💰

I told a buddy 2-3 weeks ago; 18,000-20,000 is my target; what we are seeing today is fools gold.

after this morning's 1,300 drop, we'll only be 800 points away from a 20% correction. Heck we might hit that number today or tomorrow.

Can't wait to see that 30%,I'm going to be all in.

Lol..... 50%

Needs to drop more to reach fair value imo.

What major International Bank goes bust this week adding fuel to the fire .....

I find it interesting when the super rich appear in media and warn people not to panic, and don't try to buy the dip. There is wisdom in the advice, but there is also self interest. The rich will buy the dip, and wealth inequality will reach unimaginable levels. TaxTheRich

Going to be a great time for the generation that missed out on those 2008 deals

Just so everyone knows, the futures are limit down at -5%, but the cash market hits circuit breakers at -7%, and that is why the SPY is trading at (only ?) -7% for the open.

Why not? The 76ers could win the NBA Championship too.

That 20% correction in Dec 2018 worked out pretty well in 2019... might have same effect later this year 🤷🏻‍♂️

I'm sure Trump will conjure up some story about it being the Democrats or Obama's fault.

It must be nice to pretend to sound clever with the benefit of hindsight

Nope... 50% most likely

Double that... ⚠️

FOMO will be too strong for that shit

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Stock market live updates: Futures point to 5% drop at the open, oil tanks 20%, 10-year hits record lowU.S. stock futures are pointing to major losses on Monday. No one is losing any money today. It’s all in the imagination. StockMarketCrash2020 You have not lost until you sell your shares. Hang in there!!
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