This translation has been automatically generated and has not been verified for accuracy.Investors trying to gauge the further hit to U.S. stocks from a global coronavirus outbreak and plunging oil prices are looking to past episodes of market volatility, from World War II to the SARS virus.
That list includes the 9/11 attacks, the first Gulf War and Britain’s vote to exit the European Union, but not market-driven events such as the 2008 financial crisis and the dot-com bubble.The 2020 selloff, which started on Feb. 19, is also far deeper than many prior episodes of volatility the bank studied: As of afternoon trade on Monday, the S&P 500 had already fallen more than 17% from its Feb. 19 closing high.
“We see parallels between the virus outbreak and geopolitical shocks in that both entail potentially large but difficult to quantify risks,” Deutsche Bank strategists Binky Chadha, Parag Thatte and Srineel Jalagani said in an analysis last week. Uncertainty surrounding the coronavirus’ trajectory and uneven responses to the outbreak around the world have hampered investors’ ability to determine its economic damage and further impact on asset prices.