Once the coronavirus pandemic is over, governments are going to struggle to wean themselves off the loose fiscal and monetary policies that have averted economic collapse, said David Hauner, a London-based strategist at Bank of America Corp. That risks reviving inflation, weakening currencies and undermining bonds.
For now, the coronavirus pandemic has slashed consumer demand and investment and pushed inflation to a record low in Brazil and a six-year low in Colombia. Across emerging markets inflation is moribund, allowing governments to ramp up spending and central banks to provide the liquidity markets need. The longer it goes on though, the harder it will be for policy makers to turn off the tap.
In the next six to 12 months, South Africa’s rand may be among the most at risk given lower policy rates, underlying vulnerabilities and the central bank’s quantitative-easing program, said Brendan McKenna, a foreign-exchange strategist at Wells Fargo Securities in New York. Brazil’s currency may also come under pressure as policy makers become increasingly likely to embark on a bond-buying program, he said.
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