Another price is also exceptionally low by past levels: interest rates. The short-term nominal interest rate is near zero in the U.S. and other high-income economies. U.S. short-term real interest rates are about minus 1 per cent. Real yields on U.S. 10-year Treasury-inflation-protected securities are minus 1 per cent. In the U.K., yields on similar securities are about minus 3 per cent.
But it can be inferred from past experience, as explained in a 2015 paper by Fernando Duarte and Carlo Rosa for the New York Federal Reserve. More recently, in the Credit Suisse Global Investment Returns Yearbook 2020, Elroy Dimson, Paul Marsh and Mike Staunton of the London Business School estimated the excess return on world stocks over bonds at 3.2 percentage points between 1900 and 2020. For the U.K., the excess is estimated at 3.6 percentage points; for the U.S., at 4.4 percentage points.