2021 lockdowns threaten to slow Q1 earnings recovery

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A major chunk of the recovery in companies’ earnings expected in the first quarter is at risk of being pushed back further as lockdowns and mobility restrictions in several countries cloud hopes of a

swifter economic recovery, investment banks said.

Germany, Britain and the Netherlands indicated strict COVID-19 curbs would last into early February and Italy said it would extend its state of emergency to the end of April. Japan also expanded a state of emergency in Tokyo, hurting the prospects of holding an already delayed Summer Olympics. Analysts’ earnings estimates for the first quarter did not reflect the worry either – Europe is seen reporting a whopping 40 per cent jump in profits, while the United States is forecast to see a 16 per cent rise.

“While additional stimulus could provide upside risks, rising COVID cases suggest a more tepid recovery from here.”

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