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Stronger economic data could power stocks that thrive in a rebound in the week ahead

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A marked decline in new Covid infections, improving economic data, and a big new fiscal stimulus package are driving the reflation trade.

The big event in the week ahead is testimony from Federal Reserve Chairman Jerome Powell, who delivers his semi-annual testimony on the economy before the Senate Banking Committee on Tuesday and the House Financial Services Committee Wednesday.

"He's going to have to acknowledge that the data is improving and the virus situation is improving quite materially," said Mark Cabana, head of U.S. rates strategy at Bank of America. "It is going to be hard for him to sound as dovish as he has been." Goldman upped first-quarter growth to 6%, and Morgan Stanley said it was tracking at 7.5% for the first quarter. Economists linked the surprise gain in retail sales to stimulus checks sent to individuals under the last $900 billion stimulus program approved by Congress in late December.

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