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Megacap tech stocks have been on a roll. They could thrive even if interest rates turn higher again.

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The knee-jerk expectation in markets is that when interest rates rise, tech stocks fall, and vice versa. Historical data don't back that up.

The megacap technology stocks have been outperforming the broader market of late. The NYSE FANG+ index NYFANG, -0.93% — which includes Facebook FB, -0.91%, Alphabet GOOGL, -0.96%, Amazon AMZN, -1.37% and Apple AAPL, -0.45% — has climbed 5% over the last month, compared with just 1% growth for the equal-weighted S&P 500 SP500EW, -0.26%.

The thing is, that relationship, while sounding logical, isn’t borne out by historical data. Andrew Berkin studied the relationship for a paper, “What Happens to Stocks when Interest Rates Rise.” Looking at 90 years of data, the S&P 500 SPX, -0.33% rose, on average, 10.8% when bond yields fell, and rose 12.2% when bond yields rose. Even separating out periods by quintiles when yields rose the most, the S&P 500 still gained 9%, on average.

Moderna MRNA, +5.28% jumped 8% in premarket trade on the news the vaccine-making biotech will be included in the S&P 500.

 

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