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Take Five: Inflation, energy and earnings

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Inflation angst and soaring energy prices form the backdrop to the start of third-quarter U.S. earnings season in the coming week.

Funds rebalancing portfolios and U.S. banks rushing to meet cash reserve rules tend to lift the dollar towards the end of each year. This year there are even more sources of support.

First, the Fed looks set to taper stimulus. "Real" U.S. yields -- adjusted for inflation -- are deeply negative, but at -0.9%, compare favourably to Germany's -1.9%. With the ECB inSecond as economic growth moderates, stocks have fallen and boosted demand for safer assets including the dollar. The rally in commodities, traded mainly in dollars, is another inducement to buy the greenback.

Unsurprisingly, the premium to access greenbacks is rising; euro-dollar three-month swap spreads are around 16 basis points, more than double end-September levels . Headwinds? Markets could "sell the fact" once tapering happens. Another risk is the debt ceiling deadline, ; a default while unlikely, could prove catastrophic. But even then, the dollar could catch a bid, as it did in 2008.Reporting by Ira Iosebashvili and Saqib Ahmed in New York, Kevin Buckland in Tokyo, Sujata Rao, Karin Strohecker and Tommy Wilkes in London; Compiled by Dhara Ranasinghe; Editing by Toby ChopraSubscribe for our daily curated newsletter to receive the latest exclusive Reuters coverage delivered to your inbox.

 

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