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Business Maverick: Fed’s big rate hike unearths bounty in pockets of emerging world

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Pockets of outperformance are starting to pop up in emerging markets even as the Federal Reserve’s most aggressive rate hike in two decades roils assets around the world.

Losses in developing markets have so far been smaller than in the US during a wide-reaching rout that saw the worst Treasuries collapse in at least. Corporate bonds from emerging nations are proving to be more resilient than US high-yield debt and stocks are up to a three-month high relative to their counterparts in the S&P 500 Index.

“The negative market view toward emerging markets will be relatively short-lived,” said Lewis Jones, emerging-market debt portfolio manager at William Blair Investment Management LLC in New York. “We expect the emerging market-developed market growth differential to widen as the US slips closer to recession.”

As a selloff in US high-yield corporate bonds deepens, more than doubling the average yield in the past year, emerging-market corporate debt is witnessing smaller losses. Their relative resilience has taken the spread between emerging markets and US high yield from a premium to a discount this year. Now developing-nation bonds are offering the least yield since November 2020, in relative terms.

For Nordea Investment, there’s also opportunity hiding in emerging markets if fears of a US recession align with cooling inflation and the Fed starts easing off its hawkish path.

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