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Investors brace for years of slow housing market recovery

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The housing downturn could be over in the next 12 months, a significantly shorter run than previous cycles, but prices are set to fall sharply in the meantime as interest rates jump higher, experts say.

, which will likely see a rise in negative equity for recent low-deposit buyers,” Dr Oliver said.

Similarly, in Melbourne, housing values fell more sharply, down 3.7 per cent from the market peak in early March, compared with a 1 per cent drop during the 2017-2019 downturn over the same number of days. “Considering higher interest rates have flowed through to weaker housing market conditions very quickly, we could see the reverse once rates start to fall. However, it really depends on how high rates go, and how the economy is faring after the surge in interest rates.

“We’re unlikely to go back to record low interest rates and therefore the recovery may be a more gradual one compared to, say, the last 30 or 40 years, and may take longer than 20 months before prices reach a new high. I think we’ll probably go through a couple of years where prices rise between 5 and 10 per cent.“

 

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Why do you call more affordable homes 'downturn'?

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