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JONATHAN LEVIN: Another twist in the dogfight over Jerome Powell’s labour market miracle

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Fed chair wants the number of job openings to decline, but the data is starting to move in the wrong direction

Federal Reserve Board Chairman Jerome Powell. Picture: REUTERS/ELIZABETH FRANTZ

Under the surface, the sources of the increase — government and lower-paying service jobs — weren’t exactly a sign of economic boom times, but the numbers were also not consistent with a cool-down of the hottest inflation in 40 years. Coupled with the upward revision in June job openings, the trend looks as if it’s flattening instead of plummeting, and there are still about two jobs for every unemployed person.

The job openings data surprised a market that went in with a consensus economist forecast for vacancies to drop below 10.4-million, but it perhaps shouldn’t have been that shocking. He should continue to do so by making clear that the ideal scenario isn’t his base case so that Americans can prepare for challenging times. Personal savings now account for just 5% of disposable income, the lowest since 2009, and credit card balances are rising sharply, signalling most Americans aren’t sufficiently bracing for the challenges ahead.

 

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