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Is erratic market behaviour here to stay?

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South Africa might avoid the September-selling trend this year because much of the derisking has already occurred, thanks to the historic collapse that we saw during the first half of 2022. Moneyweb Markets

Benjamin Graham, Warren Buffett’s mentor, once described the global stock market as a manic-depressive person whose erratic behaviour changes daily. Let us call this person ‘Mr Market’. For the past eight months, Mr Market’s mood has been affected by external circumstances, such as negative macro-economic data and geopolitical tensions. But Mr Market’s mood has also been plagued by internal circumstances, such as tighter monetary policy.

Stock markets were caught completely off-guard by the sudden change in sentiment towards growth and inflation. Bond markets, conversely, seemed to have figured it out in advance, being much less volatile than stocks. Bond markets were already nervous about a looming recession and the US Federal Reserve Chair Jerome Powell’s speech in late August. In his speech, Powell provided an aggressive outlook for further interest-rate hikes in an attempt to tame inflation.

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