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Bank of Canada sees worst drop in business sentiment since 2020

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BREAKING Most Canadian businesses expect recession in next 12 months, BoC survey reveals

, triggered by large increases in interest rates and high prices that reduces consumption. The two groups also see inflation remaining elevated over the next one or two years before returning to the central bank’s target in the long term.Article content

While both have similar inflation expectations and views on the probability of a recession, they diverge on wages. The average expected wage increase among businesses has receded, with nearly half not seeing abnormally high wage growth beyond the next 12 months. But consumer expectations for wage growth have increased, with 40 per cent of workers now seeing pay gains of more than 4 per cent over the next year.

Most firms said rate hikes aren’t yet holding back their investment plans. But fewer businesses are planning to hire, and some in information technology, engineering and trades are constrained by supply of skilled workers. The Bank of Canada’s next decision is Oct. 26, where policymakers are expected to raise interest rates by at least 50 basis points, according to market pricing. The benchmark overnight rate is currently 3.25 per cent, up three percentage points since March.

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