is up nearly 5% from its lows and notched its best monthly gain in about seven years in November, as expectations that the Federal Reserve will soon slow the pace of its interest rate hikes bolstered the case for investors betting on emerging market currencies.
Emerging market currencies have outperformed their developed market counterparts this year, with MSCI's index of emerging market currencies down 5% year-to-date, while the dollar's G10 peers have lost nearly twice as much.In addition to the possibility of slower Fed hikes, investors cited expectations that China will loosen its strict COVID-19 containment policy and comparatively rich yields found in many EM countries as reasons for adding to positions in emerging market currencies.
"I think the cat is out of the bag. They can't go back to their pure restrictive zero COVID policy," said Jack McIntyre, a portfolio manager at Brandywine Global. At the same time, signs of stubborn inflation in next week’s U.S. consumer price data could reignite bets on Fed hawkishness and boost the dollar.
A global slowdown "would create a safe haven bid and limit the ability of most cycle-sensitive currencies to rally against the dollar," said Aaron Hurd, senior portfolio manager, currency, at State Street Global Advisors.Carlos Fernandez-Aller, head of Global FX and EM Macro trading at Bank of America, sees an eventual China reopening boosting the Thai baht, which he believes will benefit from an increase in tourism.
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