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Scotiabank strategists reaffirm their investment game plan for 2023

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Daily roundup of research and analysis from The Globe and Mail’s market strategist Scott Barlow

“Our 2023 game plan remains unchanged for now. We believe better opportunities will arise in the first half of 2023 once the Fed is done, earnings expectations have partially reset, and retail investors have capitulated, i.e., when their asset allocation reaches more extreme levels . For now, patience is warranted as the full impact of monetary tightening filters though economic activity, and macro data degrades slowly but surely.

“The CAD was resilient for most of 2022 but sold off after September as investors focused on the imminent rate hike pause from the Bank of Canada . The BoC enacted one of the most aggressive hiking paths in 2022 and is likely going to be the first central bank in G10 to pause the tightening cycle.

“The S&P 500 exited bear market territory during 4Q to end the year at 3840, representing a 2022 total return of -18%. Components of the return included +330 bp from greater earnings, -2,275 bp from a 22% contraction in P/E multiple, and +133 bp from dividend income. The index was dragged down by Info Tech while Energy fared best … Defensives outperformed Cyclicals by 15 pp during 2022 as markets reflected concerns over the possibility of the U.S. economy entering a recession.

The 100 largest S&P 500 companies with the highest sales growth are, in order, Tesla Inc., Boeing Co., ServiceNow Inc., Schlumberger, Oracle Corp., Booking Holdings, Mastercard Inc., Intuitive Surgical, Salesforce Inc., Intuit Inc., Starbucks Corp., Adobe Inc.,“GS expects large caps with highest sales growth to outperform flat markets in ‘23″ –

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