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How small malls are proving a strong investment

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Investment yields for retail assets – which are inversely related to value – have diverged sharply in the second half of 2022, as larger malls feel more heat from uncertain economic conditions.

Small malls, including neighbourhood and convenience centres, are improving in value while the valuations of larger subregional and regional shopping centres are sinking as uncertain economic conditions drive a wedge through the retail property sector.

AMP Capital struck a deal in late December to sell the Rockingham shopping mall, in Perth’s south, for about $180 million. “The divergence in yields between destination centres and everyday needs centres is emblematic of the divergence in non-discretionary spending in recent years,” Y Research’s Damian Stone and The Data App’s Rob Ellis wrote in the PAR Group report.

The pressure on larger malls is evident in the transaction tally, especially among the vulnerable subregional centres. Between 2021 and 2022, the number of subregional malls changing hands fell almost 18 per cent, while the value of deals dropped almost 40 per cent year-on-year to $1.2 billion last year, according to the PAR analysis. As much as $800 million worth of subregional malls had failed to sell in recent months, the researchers said.

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