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Business Maverick: Emerging markets will have to weather another dollar hurrah

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A cohort of Wall Street’s emerging-market bulls is growing wary of calling a new dawn for riskier assets, opting for a more cautious approach to developing-nation currencies.

predict the dollar will soon fall into a multi-year weakening trend. Such a shift stands to support emerging markets – and indeed propelled gains of nearly 9% in developing currencies from late October to early February.Money managers from abrdn Plc to Fidelity Investment are wary of being caught on the wrong side of the latest dollar rally, especially after the MSCI Inc. gauge of developing currencies wiped out almost all of its year-to-date gains.

Even before Friday’s dollar surge, abrdn had taken a neutral stance on the asset class, looking for valuations to fall and reflect a recession. Investors at Fidelity International are now buying the dollar against the Philippine peso and Polish zloty. “The LatAm block appears to be much further ahead on the inflation and policy tightening cycle compared to other emerging markets,” said Paul Greer, a London-based money manager at Fidelity. “This has resulted in the region offering very high ex-ante real yields, which is supportive of foreign portfolio inflows entering local bond and FX markets.”

China’s PMI surveys will give a read on how the recovery is progressing in February, with Bloomberg Economics anticipating good news.

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