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Fitch Solutions: Global palm oil market to record narrow deficit in 2022/2023

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KUALA LUMPUR, March 2 ― The global palm oil market is expected to produce a narrow deficit of 100,000 tonnes in 2022 and 2023, the first annual net negative position since...

KUALA LUMPUR, March 2 ― The global palm oil market is expected to produce a narrow deficit of 100,000 tonnes in 2022 and 2023, the first annual net negative position since 2015/2016, due to an increase in the Indonesian biofuel blending mandate, according to Fitch Solutions.

“However, we note that risks to our outlook for 2023 are weighted toward the upside at present, palm oil prices having averaged RM3,977 per tonne through the year-to-date,” it said in a report today. “This is equivalent to an increase of 10.1 per cent year-on-year and thus affect a commensurate fall in Indonesia’s supply of palm oil to the global export market.

Fitch Solutions said the medium-term evolution of palm oil prices remained unchanged and saw an average price of RM3,000 per tonne in 2025, RM2,600 per tonne in 2026 and RM2,200 per tonne in 2027 alongside a gradual loosening of the global production balance.

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