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The stock market passed a key test in the charts, but another threat looms

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The S&P 500 dodged a negative chart signal and found support around a key level, but it is interest rates that will drive the index in the near-term.

The S & P 500 has found support around a key technical level, dodging a negative signal for now, but it is interest rates that will drive the index in the near-term. With the closely watched 10-year Treasury yield below the psychological 4% level, stocks have been able to advance. The yield rose above that level for a period last week. At the same time, the S & P 500 was at risk of breaking below its 200-day moving average, a momentum indicator.

's Jonathan Krinsky said since 1950, the S & P 500 has never made new lows during a bear market, if it has been able to hold above the 200-day for a period of a month. That is the case now, even though the index temporarily dipped below that level last week before rising back above it. Chart analysts say the index would need to close below that level and hold there for it to indicate real negative momentum. But Krinsky said it is possible the S & P 500 could still break its lows.

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