An earnings recession seems inevitable, but it might not last long

With 99% of fourth-quarter earnings in the books, the companies that make up the S&P 500 index are running head-on into an earnings recession, but any slump is likely to be short-lived.

Things will stay bumpy for the first half of this year, analysts’ forecasts indicate. For the first quarter and second quarter, Wall Street expects earnings declines of 5.9% and 3.8%. respectively, but forecasts call for a summer-season bounceback. But that rebound could be driven mainly by easier comparisons, after a difficult second half of 2022. Falling shipping and supply costs, thanks to easing pressure on the supply chain, could make for a second half of the year that’s less harsh on profits. But retail executives, at least, have signaled that they’re treading lightly heading into 2023, and expect consumers to remain hesitant about overspending.

The call to put on your calendar Great outdoors still going great? As pandemic restrictions weighed on people’s sanity through 2020 and 2021, more people began going outside — camping, buying RVs, golf clubs and other outdoor equipment. But rising prices and recession concerns have left less time and money for getting back in touch with nature. Retailers have gotten more cautious about what they stock their shelves with.

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