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Unpacking the market's commercial real estate problem

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Commercial real estate, particularly the office sector, is slumping — and the regional banks that lend to the space aren't looking so hot either — leading to concerns about a 'doom loop.'

Office loans represent about 17% of outstanding commercial real estate debt, as calculated by the MBA.With a glut of loans coming due soon, some will surely default. Morgan Stanley estimates"They're not systemic risks to the overall economy," says Fagan.

For one thing, similar to what happened in the residential mortgage market, underwriting standards improved after the global financial crisis. Specifically, loan-to-value ratios are much lower now, as the chart below shows. That means borrowers have more equity on their properties. That's going to help when it's time to refinance these loans. Borrowers may still have a shot at affording new loans, despite lower building values and higher interest rates.Data: Moody's Analytics; Chart: Axios Visuals

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Please hold untill the favored interests have sold out.

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