Investors are increasingly worried about the risk of a U.S. recession, following last month’s banking crisis and as more data points to slowing economic growth.
Still, the stock market has rallied so far this year, with the Dow Jones Industrial Average DJIA up 2.2% and the S&P 500 SPX up 7.7%. The Nasdaq Composite COMP , which has led the rally, gained 15.6% year-to-date, according to FactSet data. Richard Bernstein, chief executive at Richard Bernstein Advisors, said the rally in risk assets so far this year is “not a fundamental one.”
“We haven’t had the markets discounting an economy going into a recession,” according to Farrell. Even many investors on the bearish side feel that there will be one leg down to buy, and “I think good bottoms aren’t made that way,” Farrell said. “Good bottoms are made when you are afraid to buy, when they’re pretty, pretty bad.”
Gary Shilling, president of A. Gary Shilling & Co., echoed the point. “We’ve been very definitely in a risk-off investment stance since May last year,” Shilling said. His firm has been shorting crypto and long Treasury debt, according to Shilling. In fact, the U.S. is already in a profits recession, with earnings growth being negative, according to Bernstein. The deeper the profits recession, the more likely a economic recession will come, noted Bernstein.
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