It's time to pause on U.S. stocks, say Citigroup strategists. They say invest in these places instead.

If investors can only cram two events into their weary summer brains this week, then consumer prices and the start of second-quarter earnings season should be priorities.

The S&P 500’s SPX estimated second-quarter earnings decline is 7.2%, which if ends up as the actual quarterly fall, will mark the biggest drop since a 31.6% drop seen in the second quarter of 2020, notes John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. The strategist said Citi’s base case remains an 18 to 19 times [forward price earnings P/E] multiple on full-year earnings. As FactSet’s Butters notes, the current 18.9 times forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is above the 5-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 17.4.

Citi provided this chart, which shows the U.S. sectors they’ve cooled on — tech hardware, household products, food and beverages and healthcare equipment. They turned more positive on capital goods, materials and chips. Japan stocks, which have had a stellar run this year, remain an underweight as they caution that a rush of foreign money into that market could reverse.

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