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It's time to pause on U.S. stocks, say Citigroup strategists. They say invest in these places instead.

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Citigroup has gone lukewarm on U.S. stocks, saying risks of a recession are not going away and megacap growth stocks could be in for a pullback.

If investors can only cram two events into their weary summer brains this week, then consumer prices and the start of second-quarter earnings season should be priorities.

The S&P 500’s SPX estimated second-quarter earnings decline is 7.2%, which if ends up as the actual quarterly fall, will mark the biggest drop since a 31.6% drop seen in the second quarter of 2020, notes John Butters, senior earnings analyst at FactSet. The strategist said Citi’s base case remains an 18 to 19 times [forward price earnings P/E] multiple on full-year earnings. As FactSet’s Butters notes, the current 18.9 times forward 12-month P/E ratio for the S&P 500 is above the 5-year average of 18.6 and the 10-year average of 17.4.

Citi provided this chart, which shows the U.S. sectors they’ve cooled on — tech hardware, household products, food and beverages and healthcare equipment. They turned more positive on capital goods, materials and chips. Japan stocks, which have had a stellar run this year, remain an underweight as they caution that a rush of foreign money into that market could reverse.

 

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