Cannabis legalization at the federal level won’t happen soon, analyst predicts, even as more states open up to adult-use market

Further consolidation of the cannabis industry and more cross-border transactions and listings on the Toronto Stock Exchange are likely over the next 18 months, but full U.S. legalization is not, cannabis analyst Pablo Zuanic said Monday.

“The bigger positive catalysts in the near term will revolve more around company initiatives, whether in terms of strategic partnerships such as consumer packaged goods or cross-border transactions, further industry consolidation, and potential TSX listings,” Zuanic said. Zuanic sees a 65% change that the Biden administration will reschedule cannabis over the same time period, but any move to change it to a Schedule II or Schedule III drug from its current status as a Schedule I drug now “could complicate matters for cannabis businesses,” he said.

Zuanic said there’s also a greater than 70% chance that more companies will seek a listing on the Toronto Stock Exchange rather than the Canadian Securities Exchange and over-the-counter listings, which dominate the space now.

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