Investors who are anxious about a potential stock-market pullback should strongly consider taking their portfolio on a vacation in August, according to Fundstrat Global Advisors’ Tom Lee.
Lee — one of a handful of high-profile Wall Street analysts who anticipated the market’s 2023 rebound — said in his latest note to clients on Monday that investors should be “wary” of a market pullback in August given historical performance trends and the already-stretched nature of the market’s 2023 performance.Another interesting caveat: stock-market underperformance in August worsens when the S&P 500 SPX has gained more than 15% through the end of July.
“So, it seems that the stronger the year, the worse the August risk. What does this mean? It means one needs to respect the negative seasonal going into August,” Lee said in a note to clients.That said, Lee argued that the financial media and many investors have already flagged the seasonl risk, which could make a downturn less likely to be the case. The bottom line, Lee wrote, is that the market setup for August is “tough,” but that Fundstrat sees the pullbacks as likely to be “shallow.
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