Lee believes a cooler-than-expected July CPI report would be more than enough for a stock market rally that recovers all of the losses since the start of the month. Such a rally would equate to at least a 2% move higher in the S&P 500.
Part of Lee's confidence in a cooler CPI report stems from the fact that since the end of 2019, auto and shelter prices accounted for 66% of the increase in inflation. But now those price increases in cars and shelter are moderating considerably. "Investors overlook that used cars and housing are such outsized contributors to inflation. And as these components cool, the remaining components will not necessarily lead to a renewed surge in overall core inflation," Lee said.
Also helping the potential for a stock market rally following the July CPI report is the fact that investor sentiment has soured amid the one-week stock market decline. "Investors seem to have already become far more wary and that is a good thing from a sentiment perspective. Equities seem oversold as well. So, we think the probability for stocks to rally strongly after CPI is very high," Lee said.
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Stock market news today: Investors look to upcoming CPI inflation dataUS stocks moved higher on Monday as investors turn their attention to upcoming inflation data and whether that will impact the trajectory of the Federal Reserve's current interest rate trajectory. July CPI data will be released later this week on Thursday.
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