Why Nvidia's earnings could be a positive signal for Super Micro no matter what

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An upbeat Nvidia outlook could mean upside for Super Micro as well, while a conservative forecast could bode well for Super Micro gross margins.

Wedbush analyst Matt Bryson threw in the towel on his bearish Super Micro Computer Inc. call Wednesday, admitting that he “missed a fundamental shift” in the latest quarter that served as a “foundation” for the chip company’s upbeat full-year forecast.

He upgraded the stock to neutral from underperform in a Wednesday report, noting that investment in generative AI training “took off” from March to June, allowing Super Micro SMCI, +2.16% to benefit.implied by the company’s [outlook for the current quarter],” Bryson added. “Rather we see this outlook as very much fitting with our conversations suggesting GPU tightness as generally governing near-term AI server shipments vs.

“Net, while we still see believe SMCI could eventually struggle with structural market issues once NVDA GPU availability improves, we see limited likelihood this result will play out until well into 2024,” he wrote. Super Micro shares have more than tripled so far this year, and were up nearly 1% in Wednesday’s premarket trading.

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