There’s a lot to like about September. Temperatures are cooling, days are getting shorter but not too short, kids are going back to school, and the leaves are getting ready to turn. For the stock market, though, September is dreadful.
Even better, when the S&P 500 has posted a gain of 10% to 20% through August, it has averaged a gain of 7.6% for the rest of the year, according to Bank of America data. That suggests the S&P 500 could close the year near 4850, which would be a new high for the index. There is something more fundamental going on, and that something is corporate earnings. This past week, the Bureau of Economic Analysis released its second-quarter profit report, which showed profits had declined 0.65% from the same period in 2022. That jibes with what we saw during earnings season, when S&P 500 profits slid 2.9% year over year. Yet, those numbers understate how much earnings have been improving. Corporate profits fell just 0.
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