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Oil Industry Elite Hits Singapore to Debate Crude’s Next Twist

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Oil’s having a rocky year, swung by jitters over China’s slowdown, OPEC+ supply cuts, and the fallout from the Federal Reserve’s tightening campaign. The tensions wrongfooted many traders as prices sank, then recovered. Now, what comes next is up for debate in Singapore.

Producers, hedge funds, analysts and traders will all converge on the Southeast Asian city-state for this year’s Asia Pacific Petroleum Conference, organized by S&P Global Commodity Insights. The region’s biggest industry gathering — which kicks off on Monday — is a staple of the calendar, offering both a handy litmus test of the market’s current mood as well as clues on the outlook.

Crude’s gyrations over 2023 saw global benchmark Brent hit the lowest level since 2021 in June at just over $70 a barrel. That slump — which caught out overly bullish banks including Goldman Sachs Group Inc. — was driven in part as flows from Russia proved more resilient than expected despite sanctions and a price cap imposed after the invasion of Ukraine. Supply curbs led by Saudi Arabia then paved the way for a revival, with Brent now above $88.

“I’m sure that Saudi Arabia will start to unwind the additional 1-million-barrel-a-day supply cut at some point,” said Warren Patterson, head of commodities strategy for ING Groep NV, predicting the output would come back in the fourth quarter. “Fundamentally, the market can easily absorb the return of these barrels.

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