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The Stock Market Is Stuck. Why Its Next Move Is Lower.

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The S&P 500 has barely moved for much of the summer, avoiding the headwinds of the Fed and China. That can't last.

The stock market is stuck. It hasn’t moved for more than a month. Of course, it’s inevitable that this inertia will grind to a halt, but chances are that investors won’t like the new direction—down.

The Invesco S&P 500 Equal Weight Exchange-Traded Fund , which strips out the effect of Big Tech by weighting each stock in the index equally, is at $150—flat versus early July and in the middle of the $146-to-$155 range since then. And the Chinese economy is still struggling, even after lifting its zero-Covid policy in December. Exports and imports are down, unemployment is skyrocketing, the largest property developers are teetering on the brink, the yuan is sliding, and Beijing is on the fence about stimulus.

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