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Wall Street’s Stock Market Calls Vary by Firm — and by Floor

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This year’s astounding run in the S&P 500 Index has left forecasters split about what the world’s largest stock market will do next, and on Wall Street, the biggest disagreements often are emerging within the same firm.

Take Morgan Stanley. At the company’s brokerage, strategist Mike Wilson says US stocks will fall more than 10% before the year is out. On the asset management side of the bank, portfolio manager Andrew Slimmon reckons they’ll hit a record high.

“If you’re a portfolio manager, you’re seeing revisions are going up, and if you don’t own these stocks, it is painful every day,” Slimmon, senior portfolio manager at Morgan Stanley Investment Management, said in an interview. “If you’re a strategist, you don’t have to get on the scale every day.” Slimmon’s calculus tells him a different story. He predicts that expectations for positive earnings growth in 2024 and a rush of sidelined cash piling into shares will lift the benchmark to as high as 5,000 points.

Over at BNP Paribas, chief US equity strategist Greg Boutle holds the lowest year-end price target on Wall Street: 3,400. At their asset management subsidiary, Head of Equities Geoff Dailey expects a soft landing for the US economy and says it bodes well for stocks.US stocks pulled back in early August as investors came to accept the idea that the Fed will keep interest rates higher for longer to try to quash inflation.

 

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