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These 6 Food Stocks Have Gotten Hit Hard. It’s Time to Chow Down.

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Kraft Heinz, Kellogg, General Mills, and other leading snack makers could serve up gains of 20% or more. Their healthy dividends are a plus.

Food stocks are worth a nibble after their worst showing relative to the S&P 500 in more than 20 years.

Dividends are ample and look well-covered by earnings, too. Many food companies sport dividends ranging from 3.5% to nearly 5%, while the average dividend payout ratio is around 50%. Leverage ratios are at multiyear lows, leaving more room for higher dividends or stock buybacks. Another issue is “Ozempic risk,” namely that the explosive growth of effective diet drugs like Novo Nordisk’s Ozempic and Eli Lilly’s Mounjaro will curb outsize American appetites. The Ozempic impact can’t yet be quantified, writes J.P. Morgan analyst Ken Goldman, and that hasn’t helped the stocks, since investors fear the worst. And even dividend yields of 4% don’t look as compelling in a world of 5% short-term rates.

Smith, citing “a strong and accelerating growth outlook,” has a Buy rating and $86 price target on Mondelez, up 22% from Thursday’s close of $70. Kraft won’t wow anyone with its growth. Its earnings are expected to increase by just 4% this year to $2.90 a share and by 3% in 2024 to almost $3 a share. Still, its $1.60 annual dividend, which has been unchanged since 2019, looks increasingly secure as debt levels have come down.• Kellogg. It plans to split into two companies in the fourth quarter, executing a plan unveiled last year.

Spin-Off Research’s Joe Cornell values Kellanova at $68 a share and $4.50 a share for WK Kellogg for a total value of $72.50, up more than 20% from a recent $59.37.

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