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A New Stock Market High Looks Far Away. There’s a Lot at Stake.

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In 2000, the failure to reach a new record high was followed by a 40% drop.

The S&P 500 has soared this year, and the only challenge left is for the index to hit a new record high. Can it do it?

Nevertheless, here we are pondering whether the index can make a new high before January. It might not be as crazy as it seems. The S&P 500 has powered through a wall of worry to gain 16% so far this year, navigating obstacles such as a mini banking crisis, higher interest rates, and recession fears.

Getting there is far from an academic concern. An old peak sits out there like a beacon, drawing the attention of bulls and bears alike. If the record is broken, it probably confirms that a new bull market is under way, drawing in new investors, increasing the confidence of those who are already long, and forcing shorts to cover. But if it isn’t breached, bears will feel emboldened—and everyone else will wonder if they got it wrong.

Read More Trader That’s concerning “to an extent,” says Tuttle Capital Management CEO Matthew Tuttle.

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