Interest rate volatility set to knock Discovery's earnings

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Discovery has flagged a mixed earnings picture to its shareholders ahead of its annual results presentations scheduled for later this month, largely due to the impact of interest rate volatility on its earnings.

The insurance group announced on Tuesday in a voluntary trading statement for the year to end-June 2023 that basic earnings per share is expected to be between 3% and 8% lower at between 759.5 cents and 800.7 cents, compared with 825.5 cents for the prior period. Headline earnings per share , which strips out once-off items, is expected to be between 3% and 8% higher at between 816.2 cents and 855.8 cents, up from 792.4 cents for the prior period.

"Discovery delivered a robust group performance for the year ended 30 June 2023 with all of its three business composites – SA, UK and Vitality Global – performing well over the year," the group said."High levels of engagement in the Vitality Shared-value model, together with the efficacy of the model, underpinned the Group’s performance, despite a challenging and volatile macro-economic environment.

Discovery’s UK composite delivered an 18% to 23% rise in normalised profit as higher premium income from VitalityLife boosted profit. In the UK VitalityHealth’s profits declined slightly even as the Covid-19 pandemic impact continued to ease. "The reporting year coincided with considerable macro-economic volatility, with significant movements of interest rates within the markets in which Discovery operates," Discovery said."The headline earnings impact of higher rates in the UK was more muted over the reporting year, as the hedging strategy proved effective despite significant market volatility.

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