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Bond Market Corner Wants No Part of Euphoria Over Erdogan U-Turn

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A selloff in Turkey’s local-currency debt is revealing just how much skepticism still exists among some investors toward President Recep Tayyip Erdogan’s sudden embrace of more conventional policies.

With a loss of about 11%, the government’s lira bonds have been the worst performer across emerging markets since Erdogan said last week his country will lean on monetary tightening to rein in price pressures.

A local debt market that was once a big draw for foreigners has all but fallen off the international investor radar, with non-resident holdings now at just over $1 billion, down from a peak of more than $70 billion they reached a decade earlier.Investors aren’t rushing in as they expect a further surge in yields.

The lira’s relative stability against the dollar since July has resulted in its appreciation versus the euro, a setback for the $900 billion economy given the euro area is the nation’s biggest export market, said Charlie Robertson, the London-based head of macro strategy at FIM Partners UK Ltd. “I doubt anyone in the market will be convinced that this leopard has changed his spots,” said Robertson at FIM Partners.

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