The Auto Industry Isn’t Ever Going Back to Normal. Too Much Has Happened.

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The pandemic, supply shocks, and the EV revolution all point in one direction: U.S. auto production won't look like it did a few years ago, writes Sam Fiorani.

About the author: Sam Fiorani is vice president of Global Vehicle Forecasting at AutoForecast Solutions.

Legacy automakers aren’t about to give up on a market they’ve spent decades cornering. That means eventually they’ll need to return to producing vehicles at higher volumes. The low volume and high profits of the Covid era might have delivered a lesson, but earlier periods showed the risk of competition, too. When the Big Three lost sight of quality in years past, Toyota, Honda, and Nissan stepped in to show the error of their ways.

On top of how vehicles are built, now the industry is experiencing a seismic shift unlike anything in over a century. Since the self-starter made the internal combustion engine practical for everyone, it has held the overwhelming majority of the market. As clean as the ICE has become in the last half-century, it remains a significant source of pollution.

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