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Oil Price Surge Upends Emerging-Market Disinflation Trade

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(Bloomberg) -- Just a couple of months ago, emerging-market assets were all the rage as inflation eased and interest rate-cut bets surfaced. The trade has all but fizzled out. Most Read from BloombergWells Fargo Preps for Wealth Battle After $1 Billion TurnaroundUS to Keep a Distance From India-Canada Dispute, Signum’s Myers SaysBond Market Faces Quandary After Fed Signals It’s Almost DoneChina’s Ultra-Rich Gen Zs Flock Home as Global Tensions RiseRaw Meat-Eating Liver King And Other Health Infl

The rapid change has come about as oil rallied some 30% from the year’s low to alter the dynamics for developing nations. Costlier crude is reviving price pressures and damping hopes that interest rates will fall, while threatening to undermine the fiscal balances of energy importers.

The cracks are starting to show. A Bloomberg gauge of emerging-market government bonds and an MSCI index of developing-nation currencies are both closing in on a second month of declines. HSBC Holdings Plc notes that South Africa’s bonds may also suffer given the nation’s status as a net oil importer. At the other end of the spectrum, GlobalData TS Lombard reckons Chinese debt will be the most resilient as high oil prices help normalize producer price disinflation.

“Higher oil prices will likely act as a tax on other economies which are net importers, reducing real incomes and slowing growth,” said Marcella Chow, global market strategist at JPMorgan Asset Management. “This could put downward pressure on their currencies and their central banks may need to maintain interest rates at the current level, or even raise rates, to protect their currencies.”

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Oil’s rally cools as tight crude market vies with hawkish U.S. FedOil eased off yearly highs, capping a tumultuous week that saw the U.S. Federal Reserve flagging a further rate hike and Russia banning diesel exports.
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