Micron Says Earnings Will Be Terrible. But a Turnaround Is on the Horizon.

That much is obvious from the company’s forecast for its fiscal fourth quarter ended Aug. 31, to be reported after the close of trading on Wednesday. Micron’s projection calls for a 41% revenue decline—and gross margin of negative10.5%. Those are some bad numbers. But here’s a better one: The stock is up 36% this year.

Micron has been hurt by weak demand for both DRAM and NAND memory chips in its core end markets—PCs, mobile phones, and data centers. The company previously projected calendar 2023 bit demand growth of low-to-mid single digits, in percentage terms, for DRAM, and high single digits for NAND, below the company’s forecast for long-term growth of midteens for DRAM and low 20s for NAND.

Newsletter Sign-up In response to softer demand, Micron has been slashing spending. The company last quarter projected fiscal 2023 capital expenditure of $7 billion, down more than 40% from the previous year, with wafer fabrication equipment spending down more than 50%. Micron said last quarter that it continues to see fiscal year 2024 wafer fab equipment spending down year-over-year from fiscal 2023 levels.

Raymond James analyst Srini Pajjuri expects August quarter results to match estimates, with November quarter guidance slightly above consensus.

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